A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
